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🏆 Title fight Main Women's Featherweight

Cristiane Justino vs Tonya Evinger

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Cristiane Justino
Tonya Evinger
81% 19%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
W2
Current streak
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Justino: 74 sig / 0 TD · Evinger: 32 sig / 1 TD
Cristiane Justino
Tonya Evinger
65
Sig strikes landed
35
111
Sig strikes attempted
86
101
Total strikes landed
54
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
188s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Cristiane Justino

"Cyborg"
22-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
W UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Blue corner

Tonya Evinger

"Triple Threat"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36