🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Tyron Woodley vs Demian Maia
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
·Honda Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tyron Woodley
Demian Maia
56%
44%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
35
Age
Δ 4y
40
20-7-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
29-11
W1
Current streak
W7
10
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Woodley: 57 sig / 0 TD ·
Maia: 28 sig / 0 TD
Tyron Woodley
Demian Maia
35
Sig strikes landed
32
80
Sig strikes attempted
70
42
Total strikes landed
60
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.3
Takedowns attempted
8.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
73s
Control time
256s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
20-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
D
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—
Blue corner
W7
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
19 fights · 14-5
Last 5
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—