🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Daniel Cormier vs Jon Jones
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
·Honda Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Cormier
Jon Jones
26%
74%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 12"
84"
38
Age
Δ 8y
30
23-3
Career record
Δ 8 pp
29-1
W4
Current streak
W8
9
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Cormier: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Jones: 95 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Cormier
Jon Jones
57
Sig strikes landed
79
125
Sig strikes attempted
135
96
Total strikes landed
107
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.9
6.6
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
184s
Control time
228s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Daniel Cormier
"DC"
23-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
L
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
W8
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 13-0
Last 5
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—