Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Brian Ortega
Renato Moicano
53%
47%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
17-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
22-7-1
W3
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Ortega: 65 sig / 0 TD ·
Moicano: 109 sig / 2 TD
Brian Ortega
Renato Moicano
51
Sig strikes landed
57
140
Sig strikes attempted
135
61
Total strikes landed
65
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
96s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
17-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W3
Renato Moicano
22-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—