Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Aljamain Sterling
Renan Barao
55%
45%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
27-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
35-9
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sterling: 71 sig / 1 TD ·
Barao: 19 sig / 2 TD
Aljamain Sterling
Renan Barao
63
Sig strikes landed
60
139
Sig strikes attempted
148
90
Total strikes landed
83
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
6.8
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
205s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
27-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W1
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
35-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—