Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ricardo Lamas
Jason Knight
33%
67%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
35
Age
Δ 10y
25
21-8
Career record
Δ 8 pp
21-5
W1
Current streak
W4
11
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lamas: 42 sig / 1 TD ·
Knight: 8 sig / 0 TD
Ricardo Lamas
Jason Knight
33
Sig strikes landed
44
83
Sig strikes attempted
108
44
Total strikes landed
62
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
107s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ricardo Lamas
"The Bully"
21-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W4
Jason Knight
"The Kid"
21-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—