Back to UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Prelims1 Lightweight

Danny Henry vs Daniel Teymur

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio ·The SSE Hydro
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Danny Henry
Daniel Teymur
69% 31%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Henry: 93 sig / 1 TD · Teymur: 69 sig / 0 TD
Danny Henry
Daniel Teymur
39
Sig strikes landed
30
81
Sig strikes attempted
67
53
Total strikes landed
44
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Danny Henry

"The Hatchet"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Daniel Teymur

"Kid Dynamite"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29