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Prelims2 Bantamweight

Brett Johns vs Albert Morales

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio ·The SSE Hydro
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Brett Johns
Albert Morales
86% 14%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
25
Age
Δ 1y
26
18-2
Career record
Δ 28 pp
8-4-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johns: 56 sig / 3 TD · Morales: 28 sig / 0 TD
Brett Johns
Albert Morales
47
Sig strikes landed
18
78
Sig strikes attempted
67
69
Total strikes landed
44
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
333s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Brett Johns

"The Pikey"
18-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
Blue corner
W1

Albert Morales

"The Warrior"
8-4-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 3 fights · 1-1
Last 3
W UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
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D UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
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