Prelims1
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja vs Neil Seery
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
·The SSE Hydro
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandre Pantoja
Neil Seery
96%
4%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
64"
27
Age
Δ 11y
38
31-6
Career record
Δ 30 pp
16-14
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Pantoja: 119 sig / 1 TD ·
Seery: 82 sig / 0 TD
Alexandre Pantoja
Neil Seery
48
Sig strikes landed
35
117
Sig strikes attempted
96
63
Total strikes landed
46
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
197s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
31-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
Blue corner
L1
Neil Seery
"2Tap"
16-14
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—