Back to UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Prelims1 Welterweight

Danny Roberts vs Bobby Nash

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio ·The SSE Hydro
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Danny Roberts
Bobby Nash
63% 37%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
18-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
8-5
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Roberts: 24 sig / 0 TD · Nash: 25 sig / 2 TD
Danny Roberts
Bobby Nash
49
Sig strikes landed
36
108
Sig strikes attempted
93
65
Total strikes landed
41
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
83s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Danny Roberts

"Hot Chocolate"
18-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1

Bobby Nash

8-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—