Back to UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Prelims2 Women's Bantamweight

Leslie Smith vs Amanda Lemos

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio ·The SSE Hydro
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Leslie Smith
Amanda Lemos
32% 68%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
W1
Current streak
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6
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Smith: 101 sig / 0 TD · Lemos: 68 sig / 1 TD
Leslie Smith
Amanda Lemos
52
Sig strikes landed
49
129
Sig strikes attempted
101
66
Total strikes landed
74
0.0
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
56s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Leslie Smith

"The Peacemaker"
11-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
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L UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
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W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
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L UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
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W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
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Blue corner

Amanda Lemos

0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30