Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stevie Ray
Paul Felder
72%
28%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
24-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-6
W2
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ray: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Felder: 23 sig / 0 TD
Stevie Ray
Paul Felder
44
Sig strikes landed
39
105
Sig strikes attempted
102
57
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
82s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Stevie Ray
"Braveheart"
24-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
Blue corner
W1
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
18-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—