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Main Middleweight

Jack Marshman vs Ryan Janes

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio ·The SSE Hydro
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jack Marshman
Ryan Janes
83% 17%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
28
Age
Δ 8y
36
23-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
10-4
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Marshman: 75 sig / 0 TD · Janes: 83 sig / 0 TD
Jack Marshman
Ryan Janes
42
Sig strikes landed
32
114
Sig strikes attempted
98
51
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
91s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jack Marshman

"The Hammer"
23-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
Blue corner
L1

Ryan Janes

10-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—