Back to UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Main Heavyweight

James Mulheron vs Justin Willis

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio ·The SSE Hydro
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
James Mulheron
Justin Willis
64% 36%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
78"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mulheron: 36 sig / 0 TD · Willis: 52 sig / 3 TD
James Mulheron
Justin Willis
32
Sig strikes landed
34
59
Sig strikes attempted
68
50
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
157s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

James Mulheron

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Justin Willis

"Big Pretty"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30