Main
Light Heavyweight
Khalil Rountree Jr. vs Paul Craig
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
·The SSE Hydro
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Paul Craig
63%
37%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
27
Age
Δ 2y
30
16-7
Career record
Δ 11 pp
17-11-1
W1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rountree Jr.: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Craig: 17 sig / 0 TD
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Paul Craig
17
Sig strikes landed
23
28
Sig strikes attempted
46
27
Total strikes landed
33
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
64s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Khalil Rountree Jr.
16-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
Blue corner
L1
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—