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Main Welterweight

Tarec Saffiedine vs Rafael Dos Anjos

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia ·Singapore Indoor Stadium
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Tarec Saffiedine
Rafael Dos Anjos
49% 51%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
16-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
32-18
L2
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
18

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Saffiedine: 60 sig / 1 TD · Dos Anjos: 81 sig / 1 TD
Tarec Saffiedine
Rafael Dos Anjos
56
Sig strikes landed
61
118
Sig strikes attempted
131
70
Total strikes landed
79
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
71s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Tarec Saffiedine

"Sponge"
16-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
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L UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
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W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
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L UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
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W UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
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Blue corner
L2

Rafael Dos Anjos

32-18
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 18 fights · 13-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
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W UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—