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Main Heavyweight

Andrei Arlovski vs Marcin Tybura

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia ·Singapore Indoor Stadium
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Marcin Tybura
28% 72%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
38
Age
Δ 7y
32
34-25
Career record
Δ 14 pp
28-11
L4
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arlovski: 28 sig / 0 TD · Tybura: 51 sig / 2 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Marcin Tybura
27
Sig strikes landed
37
60
Sig strikes attempted
68
37
Total strikes landed
55
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
106s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L4

Andrei Arlovski

"The Pitbull"
34-25 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
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L UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
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L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
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L UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
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W UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
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Blue corner
W2

Marcin Tybura

"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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