Main
Featherweight
Alexander Volkanovski vs Mizuto Hirota
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
·Spark Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Volkanovski
Mizuto Hirota
94%
6%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
29
Age
Δ 7y
36
29-4
Career record
Δ 27 pp
19-10-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Volkanovski: 87 sig / 4 TD ·
Hirota: 46 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Volkanovski
Mizuto Hirota
60
Sig strikes landed
37
120
Sig strikes attempted
101
84
Total strikes landed
59
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
215s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
29-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Mizuto Hirota
"Pugnus"
19-10-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—