Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Ben Nguyen
58%
42%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
30
Age
Δ 2y
29
23-14-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
17-8
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Elliott: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Nguyen: 3 sig / 1 TD
Tim Elliott
Ben Nguyen
45
Sig strikes landed
46
98
Sig strikes attempted
109
63
Total strikes landed
58
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
129s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tim Elliott
23-14-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
Blue corner
W1
Ben Nguyen
"Ten"
17-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—