Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Damien Brown
Vinc Pichel
44%
56%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
18-12
Career record
Δ 15 pp
15-5
W2
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brown: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Pichel: 19 sig / 0 TD
Damien Brown
Vinc Pichel
27
Sig strikes landed
30
68
Sig strikes attempted
66
39
Total strikes landed
45
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
80s
Control time
189s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Damien Brown
"Beatdown"
18-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
Blue corner
W2
Vinc Pichel
"From Hell"
15-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—