Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
John Moraga
Ashkan Mokhtarian
58%
42%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
33
Age
Δ 2y
32
L3
Current streak
—
10
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Moraga: 56 sig / 2 TD ·
Mokhtarian: 12 sig / 1 TD
John Moraga
Ashkan Mokhtarian
35
Sig strikes landed
37
77
Sig strikes attempted
75
49
Total strikes landed
53
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
172s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
John Moraga
19-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
Blue corner
Ashkan Mokhtarian
"The Assassin"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32