Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Daniel Kelly
83%
17%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
33
Age
Δ 6y
40
23-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
14-4
L2
Current streak
W4
10
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brunson: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Kelly: 1 sig / 0 TD
Derek Brunson
Daniel Kelly
37
Sig strikes landed
32
91
Sig strikes attempted
79
52
Total strikes landed
44
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
133s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Derek Brunson
"The One"
23-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
Blue corner
W4
Daniel Kelly
14-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—