Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Mark Hunt
94%
6%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 7"
72"
32
Age
Δ 11y
43
30-13
Career record
Δ 25 pp
13-15-1
W6
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Lewis: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Hunt: 59 sig / 0 TD
Derrick Lewis
Mark Hunt
47
Sig strikes landed
17
88
Sig strikes attempted
38
67
Total strikes landed
24
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
92s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
Blue corner
L1
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
13-15-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
14 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—