Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Vitor Belfort
Nate Marquardt
45%
55%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
40
Age
Δ 2y
38
26-14
Career record
Δ 4 pp
35-20-2
L2
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Belfort: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Marquardt: 57 sig / 1 TD
Vitor Belfort
Nate Marquardt
25
Sig strikes landed
30
54
Sig strikes attempted
50
37
Total strikes landed
39
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
61s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Vitor Belfort
"The Phenom"
26-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
12 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
35-20-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
13 fights · 5-8
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—