Main
Women's Strawweight
Claudia Gadelha vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
·Farmasi Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Claudia Gadelha
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
79%
21%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 0"
64"
28
Age
Δ 3y
32
19-5
Career record
Δ 20 pp
16-11
W1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gadelha: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Kowalkiewicz: 9 sig / 0 TD
Claudia Gadelha
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
69
Sig strikes landed
57
161
Sig strikes attempted
146
103
Total strikes landed
82
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.6
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
233s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Claudia Gadelha
"Claudinha"
19-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
Blue corner
L1
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16-11
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—