Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paulo Costa
Oluwale Bamgbose
81%
19%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
17-4
Career record
Δ 26 pp
6-5
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Costa: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Bamgbose: 33 sig / 2 TD
Paulo Costa
Oluwale Bamgbose
36
Sig strikes landed
14
64
Sig strikes attempted
30
38
Total strikes landed
15
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.1
0.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
88s
Control time
11s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
82%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
17-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L1
Oluwale Bamgbose
"Holy War Angel"
6-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—