Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Marlon Moraes
60%
40%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
67"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
W1
Current streak
—
10
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Assuncao: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Moraes: 44 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Marlon Moraes
53
Sig strikes landed
40
117
Sig strikes attempted
99
67
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Raphael Assuncao
29-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
Blue corner
Marlon Moraes
"Magic"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29