Prelims1
Middleweight
Antonio Carlos Junior vs Eric Spicely
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
·Farmasi Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Antonio Carlos Junior
Eric Spicely
69%
31%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 6"
73"
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
12-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-6
W2
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Carlos Junior: 12 sig / 1 TD ·
Spicely: 17 sig / 1 TD
Antonio Carlos Junior
Eric Spicely
17
Sig strikes landed
20
31
Sig strikes attempted
38
36
Total strikes landed
39
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
212s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
55%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
12-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
Blue corner
W2
Eric Spicely
"Zebrinha"
13-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—