Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Johnny Eduardo
Matthew Lopez
63%
37%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
39
Age
Δ 8y
30
29-13
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-4
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Eduardo: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Lopez: 43 sig / 1 TD
Johnny Eduardo
Matthew Lopez
25
Sig strikes landed
26
54
Sig strikes attempted
49
48
Total strikes landed
40
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
101s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Johnny Eduardo
29-13
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
W1
Matthew Lopez
11-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—