Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Iuri Alcantara
Brian Kelleher
86%
14%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
66"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
W2
Current streak
—
14
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Alcantara: 12 sig / 1 TD ·
Kelleher: 4 sig / 0 TD
Iuri Alcantara
Brian Kelleher
36
Sig strikes landed
36
82
Sig strikes attempted
68
53
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
108s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
36-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
14 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
Blue corner
Brian Kelleher
"Boom"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
31