🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Jose Aldo vs Max Holloway
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
·Farmasi Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Max Holloway
63%
37%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
33-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
28-9
W1
Current streak
W8
9
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Aldo: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Holloway: 104 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Max Holloway
72
Sig strikes landed
111
168
Sig strikes attempted
229
84
Total strikes landed
114
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
129s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
Blue corner
W8
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
16 fights · 13-3
Last 5
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—