Prelims2
Bantamweight
Aljamain Sterling vs Augusto Mendes
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
·T-Mobile Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aljamain Sterling
Augusto Mendes
94%
6%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 6"
65"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
26-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
7-2
L2
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sterling: 83 sig / 2 TD ·
Mendes: 30 sig / 0 TD
Aljamain Sterling
Augusto Mendes
51
Sig strikes landed
22
90
Sig strikes attempted
65
83
Total strikes landed
39
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
298s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
Blue corner
W1
Augusto Mendes
"Tanquinho"
7-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—