Prelims2
Light Heavyweight
Devin Clark vs Jake Collier
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
·T-Mobile Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Devin Clark
Jake Collier
60%
40%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
27
Age
Δ 2y
28
15-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
14-10
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Clark: 68 sig / 4 TD ·
Collier: 36 sig / 0 TD
Devin Clark
Jake Collier
33
Sig strikes landed
33
68
Sig strikes attempted
76
50
Total strikes landed
51
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
181s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Devin Clark
"Brown Bear"
15-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
14-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—