Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Louis Smolka
Tim Elliott
68%
32%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
26
Age
Δ 5y
30
17-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-15-1
L2
Current streak
L4
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smolka: 41 sig / 1 TD ·
Elliott: 57 sig / 12 TD
Louis Smolka
Tim Elliott
57
Sig strikes landed
52
135
Sig strikes attempted
110
83
Total strikes landed
72
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.9
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
196s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
L4
Tim Elliott
22-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 2-5
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—