Prelims1
Bantamweight
Patrick Williams vs Tom Duquesnoy
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
·T-Mobile Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Patrick Williams
Tom Duquesnoy
18%
82%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
68"
36
Age
Δ 12y
24
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Williams: 37 sig / 2 TD ·
Duquesnoy: 36 sig / 0 TD
Patrick Williams
Tom Duquesnoy
25
Sig strikes landed
36
65
Sig strikes attempted
64
35
Total strikes landed
47
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
60s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Patrick Williams
"The Animal"
9-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
Blue corner
Tom Duquesnoy
"Fire Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24