Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Volkov
Roy Nelson
96%
4%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 7"
73"
28
Age
Δ 12y
41
41-11
Career record
Δ 17 pp
23-14
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Volkov: 122 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 32 sig / 1 TD
Alexander Volkov
Roy Nelson
43
Sig strikes landed
21
90
Sig strikes attempted
53
65
Total strikes landed
30
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
99s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
41-11
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
Blue corner
W1
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
23-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
17 fights · 8-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—