Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jeremy Stephens
Renato Moicano
34%
66%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
29-24
Career record
Δ 19 pp
22-7-1
L1
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Stephens: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Moicano: 70 sig / 2 TD
Jeremy Stephens
Renato Moicano
46
Sig strikes landed
49
120
Sig strikes attempted
125
52
Total strikes landed
59
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
16 fights · 8-8
Last 5
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W2
Renato Moicano
22-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—