Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Zak Cummings
Nathan Coy
87%
13%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
33
Age
Δ 6y
39
26-7
Career record
Δ 9 pp
16-7
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Cummings: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Coy: 23 sig / 1 TD
Zak Cummings
Nathan Coy
34
Sig strikes landed
25
84
Sig strikes attempted
70
53
Total strikes landed
38
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
130s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Zak Cummings
26-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
Blue corner
W1
Nathan Coy
"Soulforce"
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—