Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Smith
Andrew Sanchez
72%
28%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
39-22
Career record
Δ 3 pp
14-7
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Smith: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Sanchez: 63 sig / 4 TD
Anthony Smith
Andrew Sanchez
42
Sig strikes landed
37
96
Sig strikes attempted
92
54
Total strikes landed
62
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.6
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
37s
Control time
231s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
39-22
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
Blue corner
W2
Andrew Sanchez
"El Dirte"
14-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—