Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Robert Whittaker
36%
64%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
37
Age
Δ 11y
26
27-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
28-9
W2
Current streak
W6
8
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Souza: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Whittaker: 55 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Robert Whittaker
24
Sig strikes landed
41
72
Sig strikes attempted
98
38
Total strikes landed
59
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.8
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
139s
Control time
43s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jacare Souza
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
Blue corner
W6
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
28-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—