Main
Women's Strawweight
Rose Namajunas vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
·T-Mobile Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rose Namajunas
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
73%
27%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
62"
25
Age
Δ 6y
31
15-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
19-13
L1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Namajunas: 47 sig / 1 TD ·
Waterson-Gomez: 22 sig / 1 TD
Rose Namajunas
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
36
Sig strikes landed
34
84
Sig strikes attempted
74
63
Total strikes landed
56
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
182s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
45%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rose Namajunas
"Thug"
15-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W2
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
19-13
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—