🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Demetrious Johnson vs Wilson Reis
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
·T-Mobile Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
Wilson Reis
86%
14%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
31
Age
Δ 2y
32
28-3-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
24-10
W8
Current streak
W3
15
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Johnson: 108 sig / 1 TD ·
Reis: 16 sig / 0 TD
Demetrious Johnson
Wilson Reis
67
Sig strikes landed
25
125
Sig strikes attempted
93
112
Total strikes landed
47
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.7
4.1
Takedowns attempted
7.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
265s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
28-3-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
15 fights · 13-1
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
Blue corner
W3
Wilson Reis
24-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—