Main
Welterweight
Jake Ellenberger vs Mike Perry
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Mike Perry
66%
34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
31-16
Career record
Δ 5 pp
14-9
L1
Current streak
L1
17
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ellenberger: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Perry: 26 sig / 0 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Mike Perry
35
Sig strikes landed
36
90
Sig strikes attempted
74
42
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.60
86s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
17 fights · 10-7
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
Blue corner
L1
Mike Perry
"Platinum"
14-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—