Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Stevie Ray
44%
56%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
29-16
Career record
Δ 8 pp
24-9
W1
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Lauzon: 46 sig / 5 TD ·
Ray: 109 sig / 0 TD
Joe Lauzon
Stevie Ray
25
Sig strikes landed
36
64
Sig strikes attempted
84
36
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
112s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joe Lauzon
29-16
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
17 fights · 9-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
Blue corner
W1
Stevie Ray
"Braveheart"
24-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—