Prelims1
Middleweight
Thales Leites vs Sam Alvey
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Thales Leites
Sam Alvey
63%
37%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
28-10
Career record
Δ 10 pp
34-18-1
L1
Current streak
W4
9
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Leites: 38 sig / 1 TD ·
Alvey: 27 sig / 0 TD
Thales Leites
Sam Alvey
28
Sig strikes landed
34
63
Sig strikes attempted
73
43
Total strikes landed
47
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.4
Takedowns attempted
-0.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
201s
Control time
29s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thales Leites
28-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W4
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
34-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—