Main
Light Heavyweight
Ovince Saint Preux vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ovince Saint Preux
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
47%
53%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
27-19
Career record
Δ 9 pp
23-10-1
L3
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Saint Preux: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Rogerio de Lima: 17 sig / 0 TD
Ovince Saint Preux
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
20
Sig strikes landed
31
44
Sig strikes attempted
54
30
Total strikes landed
49
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
104s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Ovince Saint Preux
27-19
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
L
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
L
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
Blue corner
W1
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
23-10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—