Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Al Iaquinta
Diego Sanchez
42%
58%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
15-7-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
32-13
W4
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Iaquinta: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Sanchez: 4 sig / 0 TD
Al Iaquinta
Diego Sanchez
46
Sig strikes landed
43
110
Sig strikes attempted
118
58
Total strikes landed
56
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.70
Knockdowns
0.10
67s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Al Iaquinta
"Raging"
15-7-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
Blue corner
W1
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
32-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—