Back to UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Prelims1 Lightweight

Scott Holtzman vs Michael McBride

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Scott Holtzman
Michael McBride
70% 30%
Why
34
Age
Δ 2y
31
14-7
Career record
Δ 0 pp
8-4
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holtzman: 104 sig / 2 TD · McBride: 83 sig / 3 TD
Scott Holtzman
Michael McBride
37
Sig strikes landed
32
67
Sig strikes attempted
73
67
Total strikes landed
42
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
260s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Scott Holtzman

"Hot Sauce"
14-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
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W UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
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Blue corner
L1

Michael McBride

8-4
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
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