Prelims1
Flyweight
Dustin Ortiz vs Brandon Moreno
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dustin Ortiz
Brandon Moreno
42%
58%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
28
Age
Δ 5y
23
20-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-10-2
W1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Ortiz: 16 sig / 4 TD ·
Moreno: 24 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Ortiz
Brandon Moreno
36
Sig strikes landed
38
83
Sig strikes attempted
87
52
Total strikes landed
57
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
5.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dustin Ortiz
20-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
Blue corner
W2
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
24-10-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—