Main
Middleweight
Krzysztof Jotko vs David Branch
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Krzysztof Jotko
David Branch
74%
26%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
28
Age
Δ 8y
36
25-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-7
W5
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Jotko: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Branch: 39 sig / 2 TD
Krzysztof Jotko
David Branch
29
Sig strikes landed
15
59
Sig strikes attempted
47
50
Total strikes landed
39
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
151s
Control time
195s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Krzysztof Jotko
25-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
Blue corner
L1
David Branch
22-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—